The Guaita tower in San Marino city, the NYC UN building and a UFO appear together with the flag of San Marino and the logos of ICER and CUN in Project Titan's logo. (from author's documents)
First of all, the facts.
On May 26th, a government crisis occurred in San Marino.
The 'Rete' Movement withdrew its support from the governing coalition. As a result of this, the Movement's two ministers (holding the Interior and Public Health ministries) resigned.
View of the hall of the Congresso di Stato (State Council), the Government of San Marino (from www.libertas.sm)
Screenshot from a page of the Rete's website where the reasons of their withdrawal from the government are explained (from www.movimentorete.org)
Now that the dust has settled, it is possible to attempt an assessment of the situation.
And it is a matter of fact that a government alliance such as the current one, with a thinner majority and a high degree of internal bickering, has a precarious existence.
The works of the Congresso di Stato (from www.sanmarinortv.sm)
To simplify, two hypotheses can be made, that I will call 'the lesser evil hypothesis' and 'the greater evil hypothesis'.
- Lesser Evil Hypothesis: As there are several decidedly important issues that the governing coalition has explicitly pledged to bring to fruition despite the crisis, it is likely that the Titan Project - which they certainly do not attribute the importance of the others - will be delayed or at least not receive the attention it deserves.
- Greater Evil Hypothesis: It is a matter of fact that the duration of the current government could be limited. Indeed, it should be remembered that the interim appointment has a maximum duration of three months. In August, when an agreement must be found if this government is to continue remaining in existence, the knots could come to a head.
This would cause that the necessary 'lobbying' campaign needed to promote San Marino's proposal to the UN, which should begin a few months before mid-September (the date of submission of the proposal to the UN Secretary General's Office) would begin too close to that date, or not be implemented at all.
This would be nothing irretrievably serious, but it would not allow the other UN Member Countries to be properly informed and aware of the proposal, reducing the possibility of a positive outcome of the proposal.
Although at the moment it seems rather unlikely - assuming the government does not fall - there is also the possibility that the government will postpone the submission of the proposal on its own initiative until next year, that is, mid-September 2024.
Given the reduced numbers and the consistent bickering attitude of this alliance, the fall of the government in August is not a far-fetched possibility. In that case there is no doubt that the submission of San Marino's proposal to the United Nations will have inevitably to be postponed until mid-September 2024.
It must be said, however, that the hypothesis of the government falling in August seems rather unlikely, as it is established practice to avoid holding election campaigns during the summer holidays period.
The possibility that seems most the likely at the moment is that the current government would be kept up (propped up) until November.